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Oscar Prospectus
The Screengrab —
... Now Nate Silver has turned his statistical genius toward helping to win your office Oscar pool. “Formally speaking, this required the use of statistical software and a process called logistic regression,” according to New York magazine. “Informally, it involved building a huge database of the past 30 years of Oscar history. Categories included genre, MPAA classification, the release date, opening-weekend box office (adjusted for inflation), and whether the film won any other awards.” ...
Silver Predicts Henson
Hollywood Elsewhere —
... and won him immense respect, has delivered an analysis of the Oscar contenders and delivered one big surprise -- i.e., that Benjamin Button 's Taraji P. Henson will win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar. No way, I say. Bank on Penelope Cruz . Silver ...
Oscar Pools: Jump In
Thompson On Hollywood —
... You can test your Oscar mettle against professional oddsmaker Nate Silver, but the Oscars are too idiosyncratic to be statistically predicted in this way. I would ignore him and go with the ...
Oscar predicting by the numbers
Awards Daily —
... The video version of Nate Silver’s Oscar stat number crunching, first seen in New York Magazine. (Nate admits that he’s probably really screwed up with his Best Supporting Actress pick.) ...
The Bagger in L.A.: A Peak at the Playbook
Carpetbagger —
... , Nate Silver has in choosing Taraji P. Henson . If Mr. Silver is right about that one, the Bagger is willing to nominate the political pollster as Oscar ninny in chief.
More Links Than You Can Click On
Film Experience Blog —
... The Vulture Nate Silver (Mr. Statistics), having conquered electoral maps completely, now tries AMPAS. If you saw him on Keith Ulbermann you'll know that he blames "the computer" for his Taraji P Henson for Supporting Actress prediction. But he admits there's very very little data. Thanks, Kate! ...
Top 5 Potential Oscar Night Surprises
Cinema Blend News —
... , with the most conventional wisdom going for the biopic. But Martin McDonagh's witty, wordy screenplay for In Bruges is beloved by everyone who's seen the film, and he's got a history with the Academy-- his short film, Six Shooter , won the Oscar in 2006. The robot or the gay rights hero may still be the better bet, but McDonagh is well-positioned for a surprise. 3. Taraji P. Henson for Best Supporting Actress. This may not be a technical surprise, given that statistics whiz kid Nate Silver predicted her as the winner. But Henson is widely considered to be at the back of ...
Man v machine as 538 goes to the Oscars
Film | guardian.co.uk —
... We've written before about Nate Silver, the statistical mastermind behind US election tracker FiveThirtyEight, which analysed the polls to predict who would win the White House – and by how much. His modelling techniques, which had also been used for studying baseball in the past, appeared to be startlingly accurate. In the run-up to the Academy Awards, however, Silver decided to see if he could take on a new challenge: predicting the Oscar winners. In the end his analysis scored correctly with four out of the six major awards – mistakenly ...
